By Zachary Gava
Harare, (New Ziana) – Zimbabwe is bracing for another potentially difficult agricultural season, with Government warning that a very strong El Niño is likely to bring below-normal rainfall, frequent dry spells and warmer-than-normal temperatures between October 2026 and March 2027.
The warning comes as the country continues to grapple with the effects of the devastating 2023/24 El Niño-induced drought, which caused widespread crop failures, water shortages and livestock losses, and forced Government to declare a national disaster in April 2024.
Speaking at a post-Cabinet media briefing on Tuesday, Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services Minister, Dr Zhemu Soda said Cabinet had been updated on the 2026/27 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook presented by Environment, Climate and Wildlife Minister, Evelyn Ndlovu.
He said the outlook, covering October 2026 to March 2027, was developed following the consensus regional climate outlook issued at the 33rd Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum held in Swakopmund, Namibia, from August 25 to 28.
“The 2026/2027 rainfall season is expected to be influenced by a very strong El Niño which increases the likelihood of a below to normal rainfall season,” Dr Soda said.
The forecast has raised fresh concerns for agriculture, water supplies and livelihoods, particularly given Zimbabwe’s heavy dependence on rainfall-fed agriculture.
Dr Soda said the October-to-December 2026 outlook points to an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across the country.
While local variations are possible, the forecast suggests that generally drier-than-normal conditions will prevail during the first quarter of the season.
“Local variations cannot be ruled out, hence the need to exercise alertness as the El Niño phenomenon develops,” he said.
There is, however, a glimmer of relief for parts of the south, with some districts in Matabeleland South and Masvingo having a chance of receiving near-normal rainfall in December.
The situation could remain challenging into the second half of the season.
For January to March 2027, the outlook points to below-normal to normal rainfall in the northern and eastern parts of the country, while the southern and western areas are expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall.
Although cumulative rainfall in the southern and western areas could fall within the normal range, Government warned that rainfall is likely to be poorly distributed.
“Generally, the rainfall season will be erratic in space and time with frequent dry spells, which may be extended in some months and feature warmer-than-normal temperatures,” Dr Soda said.
The warning comes after Zimbabwe endured one of its most severe recent droughts following the 2023/24 El Niño event.
The drought resulted in significant reductions in agricultural production, with FAO reporting declines of 77 percent in cereals, 74 percent in cotton, 89 percent in sunflower and 26 percent in soyabeans.
Livestock was also severely affected by depleted grazing and water sources.
With the new outlook pointing to another potentially dry season, Government is now urging authorities and stakeholders to act before conditions deteriorate.
Minister Soda said ministries, departments, agencies and other stakeholders should strengthen contingency planning to minimize the potential humanitarian and socio-economic consequences of reduced rainfall.
“There is need to intensify water harvesting and conservation programmes,” he said.
The call places renewed emphasis on measures such as water harvesting, conservation, irrigation and drought preparedness, particularly in communities that remain vulnerable to prolonged dry spells.
The Government is also expected to continue relying on regular updates from the Meteorological Services Department as the season develops, allowing authorities and communities to adjust their preparations as more localized information becomes available.
New Ziana
