Gaborone (Bopa) – The livestock sector is undergoing structural transformation, defined by a surging commercial market and a smallstock boom that are reshaping the industry amidst severe climate pressures.
Presenting the preliminary findings on Wednesday, from the 2025 Agricultural Census, conducted collaboratively by Statistics Botswana and the Ministry of Lands and Agriculture between March and December 2025, Statistician General, Dr Khaufelo Lekobane, said the census established a baseline to monitor agricultural policies and evaluate progress under the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme (BETP).
According to the preliminary report, the census recorded a 5.5 per cent increase in the goat population, rising from 1 205 238 in 2015 to 1 271 407 in 2025.
Meanwhile, the sheep population soared by a substantial 33.3 per cent overall, jumping from 242 432 to 323 279, supported by a 35.7 per cent increase in births
The total national cattle population, however dropped by 6.1 per cent over the past decade, falling from 1 744 166 head in 2015 to 1 638 543 in the 2025 census.
However, Dr Lekobane cautioned against viewing the results as a simple narrative of decline, noting that the national aggregate masked contrasting trends.
He said while traditional cattle holdings plummeted by 13.1 per cent with a decreased population and average carrying capacity, the commercial subsector expanded significantly.
He indicated that both the number of commercial holdings and the commercial herd grew by double digits, expanding the commercial cattle population by 18.8 per cent while the average commercial herd size climbed from 295 to 312 head.
Deputy permanent secretary in the Ministry of Lands and Agriculture, Mr Kefentse Motshegwa, linked the contraction in traditional cattle to consecutive and punishing droughts during the 2023/24 and 2024/25 agricultural seasons.
Mr Motshegwa indicated that the dry spells severely depleted grazing and water availability, driving up mortality.
He further said the census data highlighted the heavy toll, showing that national cattle births fell 14.3 per cent to 373 807, while deaths spiked 30.7 per cent to 143 076 compared to a decade prior.
Mr Motshegwa noted, however, that population shifts could not be attributed to births and deaths alone, as sales, slaughters, exports and regional movements also shaped overall herd sizes.
He pointed to the resilience of commercial cattle and a concurrent smallstock boom as vital signs of adaptation, offering a lifeline for farmers seeking to diversify away from drought-exposed cattle production.
The data also exposed geographic divides across the country’s livestock landscape.
The national average stands at 45 cattle per holding, with only six districts, Letlhakeng, Mabutsane, Ghanzi, Tsabong, Charleshill and Hukuntsi, exceeding that benchmark.
Letlhakeng recorded the largest individual cattle population at 134 395 head, while Mahalapye recorded the highest number of individual cattle holdings with 3 244.
Kweneng emerged as the leading district for both goat and sheep numbers, boasting the highest concentrations and holdings nationwide.
Meanwhile, officials emphasised that the current figures were preliminary and subject to revision ahead of the full report’s expected publication in December.
The comprehensive data is designed to serve as a planning instrument for government stakeholders, private investors and policymakers.
The Ministry of Lands and Agriculture will also use the insights to direct future investments into critical water infrastructure, rangeland management, enhanced veterinary services as well as targeted drought response, while reinforcing support systems for both traditional and commercial producers as the nation tracks its regional and international agricultural development goals.
-BOPA
