by Sharon Tawuya_
Harare, (New Ziana) — Zimbabwe’s economy is projected to grow by five percent in 2026, with Government recording a ZiG14.2 billion budget surplus in the first half of the year as macroeconomic stability continues to anchor performance, Finance and Economic Development Minister Prof Mthuli Ncube has said.
Presenting the 2026 Mid-Term Budget and Economic Review Statement in Parliament on Thursday, Prof Ncube said the projection follows expansion of 8.3 percent in 2025 and 6.8 percent growth recorded in the first quarter of 2026.
He said macroeconomic stability has been the foundation, with inflation averaging 4.2 percent in the first seven months of 2026.
He said this marks the first time in over 30 years that the country recorded sustained single-digit inflation, down from a peak of 95.8% in July 2025.
He said currency, exchange rate and price stability have also been maintained.
“This is a testament to the congruency, efficacy and effectiveness of our macroeconomic policy management,” Prof Ncube said.
Prof Ncube said the outlook for the rest of 2026 is supported by a favourable agriculture season, buoyant mineral commodity prices, and ongoing structural reforms to improve the ease of doing business.
“Agriculture is expected to remain a key driver, with the sector projected to grow by 6.9 percent in 2026. Grain production is estimated at 2.4 million tonnes, while the dairy industry continues to expand,” he said.
On mining, gold production is projected to rise to 55.6 tonnes in 2026.
He said lithium exports jumped 229.8 percent to US$782.2 million in the first half, driven by value addition and beneficiation in line with Government’s National Development Strategy 2 objective to reduce reliance on raw commodity exports.
The manufacturing sector is projected to grow by 5.2 percent this year while capacity utilisation is improving, supported by new investment and disbursements from the Industrial Development Fund.
He said targeted interventions made by the government in agro-processing and pharmaceuticals are also bearing fruit.
Prof Ncube said a stable macroeconomic environment is attracting more investment, with Foreign Direct Investment increasing to US$965 million in 2025 from US$597 million in 2024.
He said mining and manufacturing were the main beneficiaries.
Foreign currency receipts rose 47.8 percent to US$10.7 billion in the first half of 2026. Gross National Income per capita has doubled to US$3,200 since 2021,he said.
He, however, noted that risks remain which include periodic outbreaks of diseases such as Ebola which have affected tourism and hospitality, while conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt global travel.
He however cautioned that any major global shocks could impact the five percent growth target.
On the fiscal side, Prof Ncube said Government collected ZiG137.8 billion in revenue during the first half of 2026, against expenditure of ZiG123.6 billion.
“The savings were used to service public debt and settle arrears owed to service providers,” he said.
Revenue performance was led by Value Added Tax at 28.3 percent, followed by Personal Income Tax at 16.6 percent, Corporate Income Tax at 13.8 percent and Excise Duty at 8.5 %.
He said under the “Investing in People” agenda, Government spent ZiG27.2 billion on social services between January and June 2026.
Education received ZiG16.9 billion, Health ZiG9.5 billion, and Social Protection ZiG832 million.
He said more funding will be released in the second half to complete key programmes.
Prof Ncube said Government continues to support vulnerable citizens, including Zimbabweans returning from South Africa.
A total of US$4.8 million has been provided to assist with safe and dignified return and reintegration through humanitarian assistance and economic empowerment programmes.
Going forward, he said growth would be further supported by the review and rationalisation of regulatory and compliance fees, licences and permits to lower the cost of doing business.
Prof Ncube said Zimbabwe remains among Africa’s fastest growing economies.
He also highlighted diplomatic gains, including election of Zimbabwe to the United Nations Security Council in June 2026 and admission to the New Development Bank in July 2026, which he said will open new avenues for development financing.
New Ziana
