By Zachary Gava
Harare, (New Ziana) – Zimbabwe is preparing for a potentially difficult 2026/27 agricultural season as a developing strong El Niño threatens to bring below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells and higher temperatures, prompting Government to activate a six-pillar drought resilience strategy aimed at safeguarding food security.
The Meteorological Services Department’s 2026/27 national outlook indicates an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across Zimbabwe, particularly during October to December 2026, while warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected during the first three months of the season.
The regional SADC outlook has similarly identified Zimbabwe among countries likely to experience drier-than-normal conditions.
Against this backdrop, Cabinet has approved an update to the 2025/2026 Summer Plan incorporating the Drought Plan, with Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services Minister Dr Zhemu Soda saying the coming season represents a major test of the country’s preparedness and agricultural resilience.
Presenting the Post-Cabinet briefing in Harare on Tuesday, Minister Soda said Zimbabwe was facing the twin challenges of climate-induced production risks and international pressures affecting key agricultural inputs.
“Faced by two major threats, a super El Niño which will cause below normal rainfall and associated with high temperatures and secondly, geopolitical tensions which have elevated the prices of fuel and fertilizer and disrupted supply, the 2026/2027 season presents a critical stress test of Zimbabwe’s agricultural resilience and forward planning,” he said.
The Government’s approach builds on lessons from the 2024/25 agricultural season, which Cabinet described as Zimbabwe’s worst drought since 1980.
Rather than waiting for the full impact of drought to emerge, the 2026/27 Summer Plan places emphasis on early preparedness, strategic grain reserves, climate-smart agriculture and measures to cushion both farmers and livestock from the anticipated weather shocks.
According to Minister Soda, the plan comprises six interconnected resilience pillars: an enhanced Strategic Grain Reserve; accelerated climate-smart production; an integrated financing architecture; livestock drought mitigation; enhanced imports; and strengthened coordination, early-warning systems and capacity-building.
The strategy is designed to maintain food supplies while strengthening the country’s ability to withstand climate shocks.
Under the plan, national cereal production for the 2026/27 season is projected at 1.6 million metric tonnes, while Government is targeting a Strategic Grain Reserve of 600 000 tonnes.
However, Cabinet projects a cereal deficit ranging between 266 881 tonnes and 541 881 tonnes, depending on final production levels.
To close the anticipated gap, the private sector will be permitted to import grain to meet commercial food and stock-feed requirements, while households will continue to import basic food commodities for domestic consumption, with the applicable thresholds subject to upward review.
The measures come as international climate agencies warn that El Niño is strengthening.
The World Meteorological Organization said earlier this month that El Niño was firmly established and expected to strengthen further, with a near-100 percent likelihood of persisting through February 2027.
Minister Soda said the interventions were consistent with the country’s long-term development aspirations.
“Building agricultural resilience under the climate-proofing agenda at both household and national levels is therefore the Second Republic’s bold expression of Zimbabwe’s Vision 2030 developmental aspiration of a food-secure, prosperous and empowered upper-middle income society,” he said.
The approach places particular emphasis on early-warning systems and coordinated action, allowing Government and communities to respond to changing weather conditions rather than relying solely on post-disaster interventions.
The Meteorological Services Department has also stressed that seasonal forecasts are planning tools and should be complemented by shorter-term weather updates as the season develops, given that rainfall can vary significantly between locations and over short periods.
With the 2026/27 season expected to bring heightened pressure on agriculture, water resources and livestock, the Government’s six-pillar plan is intended to strengthen preparedness while protecting national food security and sustaining progress towards the country’s Vision 2030 development objectives.
New Ziana
