Harare, (New Ziana) – The Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has urged the public and the farming community to remain calm amid growing indications of a possible El Niño weather phenomenon during the 2026/27 rain season, warning against panic-driven decisions based on preliminary global forecasts.
In a statement, the MSD said recent updates from international climate forecasting centres indicate a high probability, estimated between 88 and 94 percent, that El Niño conditions could develop during the upcoming rainfall season.
“The Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has noted recent updates from global climate forecasting centres indicating a high probability, ranging from 88 percent to 94 percent, that an El Niño event will develop during the 2026/27 rain season. Historically, El Niño conditions in Zimbabwe carry a 65 percent chance of below-normal rainfall, which can lead to drier-than-average conditions,” said the statement.
This would negatively affect agriculture, water supplies and food security.
However, the department stressed that forecasts issued this early in the year are subject to what meteorologists call the “spring predictability barrier,” where oceanic and atmospheric conditions can still change significantly before the start of the rain season.
“As a result of this inherent uncertainty, the MSD has not yet issued its official seasonal forecast and advises stakeholders not to make final agricultural or financial decisions based solely on these preliminary climate models,” the department said.
The MSD said a more reliable and comprehensive national seasonal outlook would be released in August through the National Climate Outlook Forum (NACOF), following deliberations at the Southern African Development Community Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF).
The August forecast is expected to incorporate more recent scientific data and regional climate assessments to provide accurate guidance for farmers, businesses and policy makers.
Meanwhile, the department said it would continue monitoring global and regional climate developments and provide regular updates as the season approaches.
The MSD also encouraged farmers and communities to continue with normal preparations for the upcoming agricultural season while gradually adopting climate-resilient practices.
These include water conservation measures, improved moisture management and the identification of drought-tolerant seed varieties to reduce potential risks associated with dry conditions.
The department further urged stakeholders to rely only on official MSD communication channels for verified weather updates and seasonal forecasts.
New Ziana
